Offline mode. Market Lab and your private journal remain available; public intelligence is unavailable.

Sports + event intelligence

Research the market.
Own the probability.

FORM ranks live sports markets by execution quality, organizes the evidence, stress-tests your probability against price and uncertainty, and keeps every published result on the record.

Scan live markets Test your thesis ↓

FORM READ / 001

POSITION

PRICE

THESIS

CONFIDENCE

TIME

Private workspace / This device

Today’s desk.

Your unfinished work, without an account. Watches and decisions stay in this browser; the research queue is public live data.

Research queue — Loading current slate Watched markets 0 No device-local watches Open decisions 0 No unresolved decisions

Loading the current research slate.

Public intelligence board

Nothing active.
Nothing implied.

No active FORM position
Ledger updated September 4, 2026 · 7:00 PM HST

FORM publishes a position only when the price, evidence, and edge clear the discipline threshold. An empty board means exactly that. No filler picks. No retroactive calls.

Active00

Watching00

Closed01

Sports research queue

Loading · 00 candidates

Ranked by market quality and researchability: spread, activity, open interest, displayed depth, time remaining and price information. Attention score is not a probability, edge estimate or trade recommendation.

Live market watch

Device-local · 00 marketsImport

Refreshes official quotes and displayed depth every 60 seconds while this page is open. Alerts rank ask movement, spread deterioration, depth loss and temporary summary/book disagreement. Export and import use a strictly validated private JSON archive. Nothing is uploaded and no order is placed.

Choose Watch price on an MLB or NFL evidence card, or verify a quote in Market Lab and choose Watch market.

While this page is visible, FORM checks each watch every 60 seconds and retains the last aligned quote within 15 minutes before the event as its verified pre-event close. Browser alerts and capture do not run after the page closes, do not backfill missed observations, and never place orders.

Cross-sport market-quality screener

Loading · 00 markets

One transparent slate-relative score for directly comparable execution conditions across MLB and NFL. It ranks current markets using 45% spread quality, 20% 24-hour activity, 20% open interest and 15% displayed touch depth. It does not use a model forecast, disagreement, probability or expected return.

Sport Sort markets Waiting for verified reports

MLB evidence board

Loading · 00 games

Official schedules, probable pitchers, venue records and recent form paired with live Kalshi prices. The Log5 baseline is an outside-view starting point—not an edge—until lineups, pitching, injuries, weather, travel, bullpen availability and costs are researched.

NFL evidence board

Loading · 00 games

Open NFL games ranked by execution quality using live spread, activity, open interest and displayed touch depth, then paired with the verified schedule and completed-season scoring context. The score does not use model disagreement. Until both teams have meaningful 2026 results, FORM labels 2026 efficiency not yet available and shows 2025 scoring rates only as descriptive context. The Log5 baseline remains a starting point—not an edge—and excludes current rosters, quarterback status, injuries, rest, weather, current-season matchup efficiency, home field, news and costs.

Verified market tape

No observations · 00 observations

No verified snapshots yet. FORM does not fabricate a price history.

Immutable position ledger

Latest first

FORM-001Closed

MarketUMass vs Rutgers: Spread

PositionNo · Rutgers wins by over 30.5

Result+$310.02

Receipt ↓Source ↗

Entry price and pre-position probability are not represented because they cannot be verified from the supplied receipt. Missing evidence stays missing.

Correction log

00 notices

No corrections published. Corrections append to this public hash chain; original positions remain unchanged.

FORM Market Lab / Interactive

A price is not
a probability.

Test a market price against your estimate, execution cost, and model uncertainty. The lab shows whether the edge survives contact with reality.

Educational calculator only. Your estimate is not a FORM position or recommendation.

Position side YES NO

Market YES price 55¢

Your probability estimate 62%

Execution and uncertainty assumptions

Estimated fees + slippage 1.0¢

Stress-test estimate by 5 pts

Limit-price discipline

Name your price before the market does.

The maximum contract price that preserves your required edge after costs and the stress test.

Required stressed edge5 pts

Maximum entry 51¢ YES

Current quote is 4¢ above your limit. Wait or pass.

Your estimate and hurdle create this private trigger. FORM supplies no probability and places no order.

Compare venue quotes Optional

Enter manually observed YES prices and the official rules behind each contract. FORM names a best venue only after the contracts pass every equivalence check.

Confirm contract equivalence Same event and outcome The wording resolves the same real-world question. Same cutoff and contingencies Timing, cancellation, postponement, and early-close treatment match. Same resolution authority The source and settlement hierarchy produce the same result.

55¢ 1.0¢ Now

¢ ¢ m

Best fresh all-in cost Primary quote · 55¢ YES Add another venue to compare.

Costs are your per-contract fee and slippage estimate. Manual quotes are not live. Verify at the venue before acting. Quotes older than 15 minutes are excluded.

Selected contract55¢ / 55%

All-in break-even56%

Base-case edge+6 pts

Base EV / $100+$10.71

Probability range57–67%

Stress EV / $100+$1.79

Maximum-loss guardrail

Size the downside first.

A ceiling based on your inputs, not a recommended position size.

Analysis bankroll$ Maximum loss%

Risk budget$20.00

Maximum contracts35

Capital at risk$19.60

Maximum profit$15.40

Assumes each contract can settle at $0 and uses the all-in price shown above.

FORM discipline checkEdge survives stress test

Local decision receipt

Keep the assumptions, not just the answer.

55¢ market · 62% estimate · 1.0¢ costs · 5-point stress

Generated on your device. Nothing is uploaded to FORM.

Private decision journal

Keep your process, locally.

Saved only in this browser. Never published or uploaded.

Thesis Invalidation

Probability evidence stack

Separate what was knowable before the outcome from the story you can tell afterward.

Outside view / base rate Evidence for Strongest countercase Key uncertainty All four fields are frozen into the local receipt when saved.

Decision provenance

Freeze the exact market, rules, and quote time behind this decision.

Market page Contract rules Quote observed Correlation group Playbook Public HTTPS links only. The quote must be no more than 15 minutes old when saved.

Import journal archive

Resolved forecasts0

Mean Brier score—

Selected-side accuracy—

Calibration gap—

Market benchmark Brier—

Skill vs market—

Forecasts beating market—

Mean move to pre-event close—

Positive pre-event movement—

Verified pre-event coverage—

Mean move to final market close—

Legacy timing-unverified closes0

Resolve forecasts after the outcome is known. Ten or more results are needed before treating the summary as a useful signal.

Decision-process feedback

Performance by research readiness

Private resolved forecasts only. Cohorts describe association, not proof that a research process caused the result.

Resolve decisions from different research states to compare process outcomes.

Strategy feedback

Performance by playbook

Playbooks are frozen with each decision. Results are descriptive and remain too small for conclusions until a playbook has at least ten resolved forecasts.

Tag and resolve decisions to compare repeatable strategies.

Saved-scenario exposure

Portfolio pressure check

Journal scenarios are not verified holdings. This view only aggregates the maximum-loss caps you saved.

Unresolved0

With risk caps0

Saved max loss$0.00

Largest share—

Save an unresolved decision with a risk cap to begin.

No saved decisions on this device.

How this is calculated

The selected contract price is its raw implied probability. FORM adds your estimated fees and slippage to find the all-in break-even, then lowers your probability estimate by the model-error input. Expected value assumes a $1 settlement and $100 deployed at the all-in price. This is a sensitivity test, not a forecast or position-size recommendation.

01 / THE APPROACH

Live evidence.
Your probability.
Public record.

FORM separates evidence from narrative, compares price with the probability you supply, and makes uncertainty explicit before you act.

Read the context

Personnel, pace, incentives, matchups and information flow.

Price the outcome

Your probability matters only after it survives a comparison with market price, costs and uncertainty.

Take a position

Selective entries with a price, thesis, confidence level and timestamp.

Publish the record

Every closed position remains visible. Wins, losses and corrections included.

Verified result / 001

The market expected a rout.

NO — Rutgers wins by over 30.5

Rutgers entered as a nearly 30-point favorite. UMass won outright, 37–21. The position settled on Kalshi and the original receipt is shown unaltered.

Cost$412.00

Payout$722.02

Profit+$310.02

Return+75.25%

View the market ↗

Kalshi closed-position receipt showing a $412 cost, $722.02 payout and $310.02 profit on No, Rutgers wins by over 30.5 points — Original Kalshi receipt · closed position · 09/03/26

02 / THE RECORD

The record begins here.

Closed positions01

Net profit+$310.02

Return on cost+75.25%

A single result is not a track record. FORM will publish every qualifying position as the sample grows.

03 / COVERAGE

Sports

Football, basketball, baseball, combat sports, golf and selected global competitions.

Event markets

Politics, economics, technology, culture and other measurable outcomes.

Where prices form

Sportsbooks, exchanges, Kalshi, Polymarket and other liquid venues.

Independent. Evidence-driven. Disciplined.